Paper #2: 1500 WORDS
Forecasting the future is one of the most important things that economists are asked to do. Governments have a few macroeconomic tools that they can use to indicate how a country’s economy is doing. An important part of all macroeconomic courses is to develop an understanding of what these economic indicators are, as well as how they are created so that we can extrapolate into the future. In this paper, you are asked to use your newly acquired macroeconomic knowledge to predict the future.
It is expected that the paper will be free of grammatical errors.
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Specifically, you are to forecast the following key macro-economic variables in United Kingdom for five years starting with 2019 through 2023 using this simple chart:
|Variable/Year||2019||2020||2021||2022||2023||5 year average|
|Growth rate of Real GDP/Capita|
1. Real GDP/Capita in USD$
2. The growth rate of Real GDP per Capita (% change per year)
3. The inflation rate (%)
4. The unemployment rate (%) and
5. Interest rates -5 year fixed mortgage rate.
Include the following sections in your paper. The breakdown of the marks will be:
1) Introduction (8%)
Explaining what you are going to write about.
2) Background and History (8%)
What are the important key historic factors? For example, did the country recently receive independence or become a member of the World Trade Organization or something else? What is the current economy like? Is it going through some sort of economic crisis or recession?
3) Definitions (10 %)
Define each variable (Five listed above) and explain how they are determined.
Explain why each variable is an important economic indicator and why these numbers are important to you or to people in that country. In other words, what will the real impact of these forecasts going to be on the people?
4) Five Year Average Predictions/Calculations (20%)
For the calculation and actual numbers of your predictions, the basic approach will be to calculate a five-year average for each of the four forecast variables.
5) Explanation of Predictions/Forecast (36%)
The most important part of the paper is your explanation.
Use your own words.
Carefully and completely explain why you believe that your forecast is true.
Convince the reader that your numbers are based on solid predictions and explain why. You may wish to sight historical information.
You are free to consult published forecasts and use them as a basis for your prediction.
6) Conclusion （10%）
The conclusion is a summary that not only reiterates the main points of the paper, but draws the paper together, like a thread sewing the pieces of a quilt together. A strong conclusion that has been backed up in the main body of the paper will result in a winning paper.
7) References (8%)
References must be current and from multiple sources and from mixed media.
Be sure to use APA and reference any quotations or web material that you use in your paper. The various chartered banks and investment dealers also prepare macroeconomic forecasts which may be useful as a source of ideas.